Your chance for getting X-mas present

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Evan Send PM

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#124 Dec 2015 03:00

I got thinking how likely it was that I was going to get a present so I figured out the probability and plotted it here. Its the probability of receiving 1 or more gifts as a function of how many gift giveaways you are online for.

itemgiveaway.png

The formula I used is 1 - [ (uip-1)/uip ]^n, where n is the number of gift giveaways you're present for and uip is an estimate of the average number of unique ips, which I have assumed is 90. And to preemptively answer your question, "Don't you have anything better to do?", yes, I have way more important stuff I should be working on but fuck it.

As you can see, if you commit to witnessing about 60 events, your chance of receiving an item is about 50% and the point of diminishing returns occurs at about 150 events, where your chance of at least 1 item is 80%.

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Modoc Send PM

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#224 Dec 2015 03:31

Thanks I was going to do something like this at work but I didn't have a chance,  year end and all. Now the fun thing about stats though is that this rerolls  with every award so if you get one at like 30 rewards if you stick around for 80 you're likely to get another one at the 10th draw you have seen.  So hang in there folks.

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shitsticknegro Send PM

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#324 Dec 2015 07:19

Not true... i was logged on for 18+ hours... mostly afk and not including all the other events i seen on the first day. 18 plus hours is about 36 events and still have not recieved anything howevere i have witnessed quite a few people get it 2 or 3 times already. Not saying your math is wrong but i dont believe it. Iv probably witnessed 65+ events some bs lol double xp is awesome tho!!

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n0m Send PM

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#424 Dec 2015 10:15

There's a random factor in place which means there's a chance that you won't get gift at all even if you've been logged in from start but that's unlikely.

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padwan121 Send PM

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#524 Dec 2015 11:39

How u don't do a event for one.. for people over 1400skill total is past me..it's fast and simple..also seen people*same person*with several new items..then u got shisticks who is proof 18 hours.. not even one?  Make a npc who gives u one..People don't have time to stand about like a lemon to get one especially over festive period me been one of them.....no doubt I'll be pking later.. with my luck I'll get one in middle of combat and get 3 hit lol...couldn't care about gp..or present its principal of it..a little application for the odd few playeys that been here from start and have put a lot of time and effort from the very start...2x flats and ur telling me it's down to luck..p.s it's a big .l. from u to us I guess for the loyalty.

Last edited by padwan121 (24 Dec 2015 12:05)

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bestever2025 Send PM

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#625 Dec 2015 16:16

rip

Last edited by bestever2025 (25 Dec 2015 16:25)

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pepster Send PM

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#726 Dec 2015 04:38

padwan121 said:

How u don't do a event for one.. for people over 1400skill total is past me..it's fast and simple..also seen people*same person*with several new items..then u got shisticks who is proof 18 hours.. not even one?  Make a npc who gives u one..People don't have time to stand about like a lemon to get one especially over festive period me been one of them.....no doubt I'll be pking later.. with my luck I'll get one in middle of combat and get 3 hit lol...couldn't care about gp..or present its principal of it..a little application for the odd few playeys that been here from start and have put a lot of time and effort from the very start...2x flats and ur telling me it's down to luck..p.s it's a big .l. from u to us I guess for the loyalty.

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